Why Arsenal are still the favourites to win the Premier League
Last weekend could hardly have gone worse for Arsenal. A flat and disjointed home defeat to Bournemouth set the tone on Saturday, and matters worsened when Manchester City swept aside Chelsea at Stamford Bridge a day later. What had been a nine-point cushion at the top of the Premier League has now been cut to six, with City still holding a game in hand.
The narrative since has been familiar: if Manchester City win all their remaining matches, the title is theirs. Yet that assumption glosses over just how difficult such a run would be, even for a Pep Guardiola side. Recent evidence suggests City are not quite the relentless machine of previous seasons. Across the last two campaigns, their longest winning streak in the league stands at six matches, with anything beyond that proving elusive. They remain formidable, capable of brilliance, but far from infallible. Assuming perfection from here may be premature.
For Arsenal, the trip to the Etihad should be seen as an opportunity rather than a looming threat. Victory there would all but secure the title. Encouragingly, their recent league record against City offers hope. Arsenal are unbeaten in their last five Premier League meetings with the champions, a stark contrast to the 12 consecutive defeats that preceded that run. Even their League Cup final loss, while concerning, was not a complete dismantling. City were superior, but Arsenal were well below their usual level.
More broadly, Mikel Arteta’s side have shown resilience in high-profile fixtures. Over the past three and a half seasons, Arsenal have lost fewer matches against top-six opponents than any of their rivals and have accumulated more points in those games. Their issue has more often been slipping up in matches they are expected to win, rather than faltering against direct competitors.
While predicting outcomes at this stage of the season is always risky, the run-in still appears to favour Arsenal. Based on opponent strength, their remaining fixtures are marginally less demanding than City’s. Relative to the rest of the league, Arsenal have one of the more favourable schedules, and with several games still to come at home, avoiding defeat at the Etihad could be enough to keep them in control.
Of course, doubts have crept in. Arsenal have won just one of their last five matches and have exited both domestic cups, with the nature of those defeats raising questions about their ability to cope with pressure. But the title race is far from over, and there are strong underlying reasons for optimism.
Criticism of Arsenal’s creativity from open play is valid, as highlighted by their struggles against Bournemouth. Yet their overall attacking output remains healthy, bolstered significantly by their effectiveness from set-pieces. Their ability to generate high-quality chances from dead-ball situations continues to be a major strength, even if the balance between open play and set-piece creation is not ideal.
Defensively, Arsenal remain the standout side in the league. Their expected goals against figures are the best in the division, and even during this recent dip, they have continued to limit opponents to relatively few high-quality chances. At the other end, they are still creating enough opportunities to win games consistently, as reflected in their strong expected goals record across the season.
Perhaps most tellingly, the data still firmly supports Arsenal’s position. Statistical models continue to rate them as clear favourites to win the title, with simulations heavily backing them to finish top. Strip away the emotion of a difficult weekend, and the bigger picture remains unchanged: Arsenal are still in control of their destiny.
Momentum may currently sit with Manchester City, and the expectation of an Arsenal collapse is growing louder. But the fundamentals of this title race suggest otherwise. If Arteta’s side can respond quickly, they remain well placed to see the job through.
